George W Bush has snatched defeat from the very jaws of victory.
Just as the US President was doubtless beginning to congratulate himself on achieving almost all his objectives at the Earth Summit – most notably blocking targets for increasing renewable energy by rallying oil exporting countries – he has been unexpectedly routed on the environmental issue closest to his heart.
Canada and Russia have announced, despite strong US pressure, that they are taking steps to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Their ratifications will bring into force the treaty on fighting global warming that Mr Bush has been trying to destroy ever since taking office.
In a strange twist, the summit's greatest success has come in an area scarcely under discussion. The Kyoto Protocol was only a small part of an agenda mainly devoted to poverty and environmental issues, such as lack of energy and basic sanitation, that most immediately affect the poor.
Before the summit Canada had warned it was unlikely to ratify Kyoto and during it Russia's Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade said there was, "a risk, without a doubt" that his country would not join in.
Russia's omission would have been fatal. Under the protocol 55 countries, crucially including nations responsible for 55 per cent of the industrialised world's emissions of carbon dioxide, would have to ratify if the treaty was to come into effect.
Ninety countries have ratified, clearing the first hurdle. But the treaty's supporters have struggled to make up the 55 per cent, with the United States and Australia, which together account for more than 38 per cent of emissions, staying out. Without Canada, it would have been tight. Without Russia it would have been impossible.
Both countries have their problems. In Russia, left-wing representatives in the Duma oppose the treaty. And the country is likely to make much less money out of the treaty than expected by selling generous allowances of carbon dioxide emissions to other countries – the market has fallen since the US decided to stay out of it.
Canada, meanwhile, has faced opposition from energy-exporting states like Alberta. And it has suffered particularly heavy arm-twisting from the US, with which its economy is closely linked.
But pressure built up at the summit has helped bring both countries on board. After intense argument, its plan of action includes a clause recording that the nations who have already joined the treaty "strongly urge" others to ratify it "in a timely manner".
This was interpreted, particularly in Russia, as a call by the world to get on with it. And the pressure has built up as leader after leader has called on the waverers to join in.
Tony Blair said that the treaty was "right", and called for further ratifications. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder of Germany went further, calling on "states to ratify the Kyoto Protocol as quickly as possible so that it can enter into force before the end of the year". He warned that the recent floods in his country, central Europe and China showed that "climate change is no longer a sceptical forecast, but a bitter reality."
But perhaps the most moving appeal of all came from President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom of the Maldives, whose country is due to disappear beneath the waves as global warming causes the seas to rise. "Low lying nations are at greater risk than ever before" he said. "Time is running out. The Kyoto Protocol must be universally honoured."
Of course, the failure to agree renewable energy targets will make it harder to reduce carbon dioxide given off by fossil fuels that will be needed to fight global warming.
But the world is unlikely to let President Bush have the last word here, either. The European Union announced that it would form a "coalition of the willing" with progressive developing countries to promote renewables. And Chancellor Schröder is to call an international conference on the issue.
Besides, once the treaty is in force, countries will be bound to reduce their emissions and will have an incentive to do so quickly, because they will be able to sell their allowances to countries slower at reducing emissions.
As money begins to be made out of the treaty, and new cleaner technologies take off, American business is likely to clamour to join the party. So Mr Bush – who chose to holiday on his Texan ranch rather than join his fellow leaders – may yet have cause to regret his decision to stay away.
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