Mindfully.org note:
This plan includes methods that, in the long run, are not sustainable. Those include nuclear power; capturing and storing carbon; conservation tillage, which normally is a key part of industrial farming that uses pesticides such as Monsanto's Roundup; and biomass fuels, which are produced by unsustainable industrial farming methods. The plan does contain sustainable ideas such as solar, wind, and conservation. And it this plan would reduce carbon emissions, but we feel that it could be a much better plan if the energy produced by the unsustainable methods were realized by conservation methods (just use less) or one of the sustainable methods of production. We no longer have the option of creating energy with technologies that have largely negative impacts such as nuclear and industrial farming.
Humanity has the hardware in hand to halt the rise in heat-trapping greenhouse gases it pumps into the atmosphere and forestall the worst effects of global warming projected for the end of this century.
The goal could be achieved within the next 50 years by more widespread use of a portfolio of at least 15 approaches — from energy efficiency, solar energy, and wind power to nuclear energy and the preservation or enhancement of "natural" sinks for carbon dioxide such as rain forests, or the conservation tillage techniques on farms worldwide, say two Princeton University researchers in a study published Friday.
The list of technologies has been around for years, the researchers acknowledge. But past studies, such as one conducted by five US national laboratories four years ago, tended to focus on whether these approaches could be used to reach the emissions goals and deadlines in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol without trashing the economy, as some critics of the pact have warned.
Holding out for more research, Bush administration officials have argued that "we need a solution comparable to the discovery of electricity before we can get on with the carbon problem," says Robert Socolow, an engineering professor at Princeton University and codirector of the school's Carbon Mitigation Initiative. "But there isn't a [Michael] Faraday in every generation. If you don't get started, you'll waive an opportunity" to use what's available.
The study, published in Friday's edition of the journal Science, is short on policy recommendations.
"How do you get these [technologies] into the system?" asks Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and Strategies for the Global Environment in Arlington, Va. The problem, she says, is more one of politics and cost than whether key technologies currently exist at industrial scales.
Yet by adopting a more scientifically defensible target and a longer time scale to achieve it, Stephen Pacala and Dr. Socolow hope the study helps break a logjam — at least in the United States — over when to begin efforts to stabilize and ultimately reduce the carbon-dioxide emissions that most atmospheric scientists say are contributing to a warming world climate.
The duo argues that applied globally, the approaches they identify could cap atmospheric CO2 concentrations at roughly 500 parts per million. This would be significantly lower than what is projected for 2100 if no actions are taken. And the means they have developed for analyzing the gap between business-as-usual emissions and the stable rate they seek — and the plausibility of using existing approaches to reach them — could help policymakers choose among options.
Oceans growing acidic The study's publication comes at a time when scientific research continues to build what many see as a case for action, even as it also aims to reduce the uncertainties that still surround the direct and indirect effects of humanity's industrial donations of carbon to the atmosphere.
In July, researchers published two studies in the journal Science pointing to the oceans as the largest sink for atmospheric CO2 and measuring CO2's impact on the ocean carbon cycle. The results indicate that the oceans are becoming more acidic, which could endanger a range of marine life.
Meanwhile, climate models are teasing out the potential effects of climate change. Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., report in Friday's edition of the journal Science that a "business as usual" buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere will intensify large-scale circulation patterns that bring heat waves to the US and Europe. The results suggest that the southern and western US would be among the regions hardest hit by frequent, long-lasting heat waves.
Focus on climate change The Princeton team's work also comes when momentum continues to build for more concerted action on climate change, even as the prospects for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol appear dim. In the US, state and local governments, as well as a range of corporations, are adopting approaches to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions. Some of the pressure also is building from insurance and reinsurance companies, who must provide the financial protection for businesses that could be hammered by some of the more extreme weather events a warmer world is projected to deliver.
In Europe, Britain has adopted a goal of cutting its CO2 emissions by substantial amounts over the next 50 years. The European Union, already having a difficult time meeting the shorter-term objectives of Kyoto, are said to be looking at longer timescales for reducing emissions as well.
Socolow and Dr. Pacala argue that such time scales mesh nicely with the typical lifetime for power plants and factories, and can embrace several turnovers in vehicle fleets and new homes. This could allow their portfolio to be phased in with little if any economic disruption. They say their approach, which is global in scope, also buys researchers the time to develop and perfect some of the more esoteric sources of energy — such as nuclear fusion or space-based solar power — that emit no carbon as a byproduct. These and other advanced technologies would then help reduce industrial CO2 emissions, rather than merely lock them in at a fixed level.
source: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0813/p03s02-ussc.html 15aug04
PRINCETON, N.J. -- Existing technologies could stop the escalation of global warming for 50 years and work on implementing them can begin immediately, according to an analysis by Princeton University scientists.
The scientists identified 15 technologies -- from wind, solar and nuclear energy to conservation techniques -- that are ripe for large-scale use and showed that each could solve a significant portion of the problem. Their analysis, published in the Aug. 13 issue of Science, indicates that many combinations of these 15 technologies could prevent global emissions of greenhouse gasses from rising for the next five decades.
The finding counters the common argument that a major new technology needs to be developed before greenhouse gasses can be controlled, said professors Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow, who conducted the study.
"It certainly explodes the idea that we need to do research for a long time before getting started," said Pacala, a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and co-director with Socolow of Princeton's Carbon Mitigation Initiative.
"If we decide to act, we will need to reduce carbon emissions across the whole global economy," said Socolow, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering. "Fortunately, we have the tools to do this, especially if we think in terms of 50-year campaigns, not instant solutions."
Although the current study did not examine the costs of scaling up each of the 15 possible technologies, the authors point out that implementing the measures would likely generate economic benefits, including creating new industries, reducing the U.S. dependence on foreign oil and lessening the need for other pollution-control expenses associated with burning coal and other fossil fuels.
Carbon the culprit
The study focuses on the main contributor to greenhouse warming, carbon dioxide, which comes from burning carbon-based fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal. Throughout Earth's history, changes in carbon dioxide levels have been linked to changes in climate. Current global emissions of carbon dioxide contain 7 billion tons of carbon per year. That amount is projected to double to 14 billion tons per year over the next 50 years as the world population increases and people consume more energy. To keep emissions stable, technologies and conservation efforts would have to prevent 7 billion tons worth of emissions per year by 2054.
Pacala and Socolow show how each of the 15 options they identified could prevent 1 billion tons a year worth of carbon emissions by 2054. To illustrate their idea, the researchers created a graph that divides the problem into seven 1 billion-ton-per-year "wedges." (See figures.) In their paper and 51 pages of supplementary online material, they identify opportunities and difficulties associated with each option and compare alternative combinations of seven "wedges."
Several of the options, for example, involve capturing carbon dioxide at power plants or other locations and storing it deep underground (carbon dioxide gas already is commonly injected into the Earth as part of some oil drilling operations). Others involve improving energy conservation faster than the modest improvements that are continually occurring. The researchers identify various renewable energy sources, including solar and wind, that could be scaled up faster than current projections. Changes in forestry and farming techniques also could lead to substantial reductions in carbon emissions.
Pacala and Socolow caution that scientists must continue researching alternative sources of energy because new measures will be required after 50 years. By that time, some of the 15 technologies will have reached their full potential and may not be able to keep up with increasing demand.
Case for action
Pacala and Socolow said that limiting carbon emissions to present-day levels for 50 years would put the world on a track to stabilize the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at about 500 parts per million. That would be roughly a doubling of the carbon dioxide content compared to the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million. If emissions are left unchecked, it would be difficult to stabilize below a tripling. The current concentration is about 375 parts per million.
The authors acknowledged that their analysis does not address the question of why it is necessary to act in the first place. “Ideally, scientists and economists would produce a rigorous analysis showing that the benefits of controlling greenhouse gases outweigh the risks of not doing so,” said Pacala. "But the rigorous analysis is not going to be possible until the warming is upon us -- or not, as the case may be," Pacala continued. "The alternative to acting now is to watch the experiment happen and then find out how accurate we were."
A strong case for action comes from three lines of evidence, said Pacala. First, investigations of the Earth's climate over the last million years show that various factors, such as changing carbon dioxide levels, tend to reinforce each other and cause the temperature "to switch all at once" as it has during previous ice ages, Pacala said. "We understand those feedback mechanisms somewhat, but not completely, and that is scary."
A second reason for concern comes from current observations of change, including warming temperatures and the melting of ancient ice in glaciers, said Pacala.
Lastly, the computer models that explain past climate behavior and predict future changes indicate that increasing the level of carbon dioxide will cause long-term warming. "The models are not perfect but they are based on sound principles," Pacala said.
"You put it all together and you say, 'This looks dangerous.' And then when you find that we already have the technology to deal with it, we say, 'Why not?'" Pacala said.
"We'll have to spend real money," Socolow said, "but addressing the global carbon problem now will provide a tremendous stimulus to the economy and will promote the development of needed international institutions, while averting the most serious environmental consequences."
Pacala and Socolow's research is part of the Carbon Mitigation Initiative, a project in the Princeton Environmental Institute funded by $20 million in grants from BP and Ford Motor Co. The researchers are continuing their work with more detailed analysis of the challenges and opportunities associated with the technologies they identified and with further studies of the magnitude and urgency of the carbon and climate problem.
source: http://www.princeton.edu/pr/news/04/q3/0812-carbon.htm 15augu04
Backgrounder / Press Release / CMI
Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning are projected to double in the next 50 years (Figure 1), keeping the world on course to more than triple the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration from its pre-industrial level. This path (black line) is predicted to lead to significant global warming by the end of this century, along with decreased crop yields, increased threats to human health, and more frequent extreme weather events.
In contrast, if emissions can be kept flat over the next 50 years (orange line), we can steer a safer course. The flat path, followed by emissions reductions later in the century, is predicted to limit CO2 rise to less than a doubling and skirt the worst predicted consequences of climate change.
Keeping emissions flat for 50 years will require trimming projected carbon output by roughly 7 billion tons per year by 2054, keeping a total of ~175 billion tons of carbon from entering the atmosphere (yellow triangle). We refer to this carbon savings as the “stabilization triangle.”
To keep pace with global energy needs at the same time, the world must find energy technologies that emit little to no carbon, plus develop the capacity for carbon storage. Many strategies available today can be scaled up to reduce emissions by at least 1 billion tons of carbon per year by 2054. We call this reduction a “wedge” of the triangle (Figure 2). By embarking on several of these wedge strategies now, the world can take a big bite out of the carbon problem instead of passing the whole job on to future generations.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Based on “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies” by Steve Pacala & Rob Socolow in Science, August 13, 2004.
The Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) is a 10-year program supported by BP and Ford Motor Company to find solutions to the greenhouse gas problem. Over 60 CMI researchers in science, engineering, and policy are developing strategies to reduce global carbon emissions safely, effectively, and affordably. CMI is a part of the Princeton Environmental Institute at Princeton University.
We have the technology….
Each of the 15 strategies below has the potential to reduce global carbon emissions by at least 1 billion tons per year by 2054, or 1 wedge. A combination of strategies will be needed to build the 7 wedges of the stabilization triangle.
Efficiency
1. Double fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg 2. Decrease the number of car miles traveled by half 3. Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings 4. Produce current coal-based electricity with twice today’s efficiency
Fuel Switching
5. Replace 1400 coal electric plants with natural gas-powered facilities
Carbon Capture and Storage
6. Capture AND store emissions from 800 coal electric plants 7. Produce hydrogen from coal at six times today's rate AND store the captured CO2 8. Capture carbon from 180 coal-to-synfuels plants AND store the CO2
Nuclear
9. Add double the current global nuclear capacity to replace coal-based electricity
Wind 10.
Increase wind electricity capacity by 50 times relative to today, for a total of 2 million large windmills
Solar
11. Install 700 times the current capacity of solar electricity 12. Use 40,000 square kilometers of solar panels (or 4 million windmills) to produce hydrogen for fuel cell cars
Biomass Fuels
13. Increase ethanol production 50 times by creating biomass plantations with area equal to 1/6th of world cropland
Natural Sinks
14. Eliminate tropical deforestation AND create new plantations on non-forested land to quintuple current plantation area 15. Adopt conservation tillage in all agricultural soils worldwide
No one strategy will suffice to build the entire stabilization triangle. New strategies will be needed to address both fuel and electricity needs, and some wedge strategies compete with others to replace emissions from the same source. Still, there is a more than adequate portfolio of tools already available to build the stabilization triangle and control carbon emissions for the next 50 years.
Carbon Mitigation Initiative Princeton Environmental Institute Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
voice: (609)258-3832 fax: (609)258–6818 http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi
For more information, contact Roberta Hotinski, CMI Information Officer Email: hotinski@princeton.edu Phone: 609-258-7523
source: http://www.princeton.edu/pr/news/04/q3/0812-carbon/backgrounder.pdf 15aug04
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