Examines world and U.S production, consumption, supply and use, trade, stocks, and prices for beet and cane sugar, and high fructose corn syrup.
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release.
On August 31, 2001, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a Payment-in-Kind (PIK) Diversion Program for the fiscal year (FY) 2002 sugar crops. Although both sugarcane and sugarbeet growers were able to bid for sugar in the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) inventory by offering to divert acres from harvest, almost all bids accepted (97.3 percent) came from sugarbeet growers. The number of bids accepted were 3,862. The bids comprised 90,617 acres, mostly from Minnesota (37 percent), North Dakota (19 percent), and Idaho (18 percent).
The USDA projects beet sugar production at 3.9 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down by 692,000 STRV from last year. Sugarbeet area is lower than last years total by 193,000 acres due to the closure of two processing factories in California, uncertainty in the Central Great Plains regarding the purchase of processing factories by the producers, and a decision to suspend operations for this year at a processing plant in Washington State due to high energy costs and low sugar prices at planting time. The PIK Diversion Program reduced area for sugarbeet harvesting by over 88,000 acres. Overall, the USDA estimates sugarbeet area harvested at 1.243 million, 129,300 acres less than last years. Poorer than expected crop conditions, especially in the Red River Valley, contributed to a reduction of estimated national sugarbeet yields to 20.7 tons/acre, compared with last years 23.6 tons/acre.
Cane sugar production for FY 2002 is projected at 4.025 million STRV, down 57,000 STRV or 1.4 percent from the previous year. Although combined production is projected to increase in Louisiana, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico by 65,000 STRV, these increases are more than offset by projected decreases in Florida and Texas totaling 122,000 STRV. Overall, U.S. sugar production is projected at 7.925 million STRV, a decrease of 8.6 percent compared with FY 2001.
On September 18, 2001, the USDA established the FY 2002 tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for imports of sugar at 1,288,983 metric tons, raw value (MTRV), or 1,420,861 STRV. The total includes a quantity for raw sugar of 1,117,195 MTRV, the minimum level to which the United States is committed under the World Trade Organization (WTO); a quantity for refined sugar of 34,000 MTRV; and a required quantity of 137,788 MTRV for Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). According to the U.S. Customs Service, sugar amounting to 212,611 MTRV (234,363 STRV) of the raw and refined sugar TRQ had entered through December 26, 2001.Sugar imports outside the sugar TRQ for FY 2002 are projected to total 290,000 STRV, including 265,000 STRV under the combined Refined Sugar Re-export Program, the Sugar-Containing Products Program, and the Polyhydric Alcohol Program.U.S. sugar exports reflect shipments to foreign destinations made under the Refined Sugar Re-export Program -- they are forecast at 150,000 STRV. Deliveries to domestic food and other products manufacturers under the Sugar-Containing Products Re-export Program are projected at 85,000 STRV. These deliveries through November 2001 have amounted to a very high 27,157 STRV. Deliveries for the Polyhydric Alcohol Program are projected at 15,000 STRV. Deliveries for FY 2002 domestic food and beverage deliveries are projected at 10.170 million STRV, about 1.7 percent higher than FY 2001. Nonetheless, deliveries for the first 2 months of the fiscal year are running about 3.7 percent lower than last year.
Ending sugar stocks are projected at 1.220 million STRV, for an ending stocks- to-use ratio of 11.6 percent. The CCC is projected to own no more than 364,000 STRV at the end of the fiscal year, implying privately-held stocks of about 856,000 STRV, for an ending private stocks-to-use ratio of 8.1 percent.
The USDA forecasts Mexican sugar production for 2001/02 at 5.092 million MTRV. Area harvested for sugarcane is projected at 600,000 hectares, and sugarcane production is projected at 44.0 million metric tons. Although harvested area is forecast slightly below the 2000/01 level, weather conditions (including rainfall) have been good, indicating yields close to the previous year (73.5 tons/hectare).
The USDA forecasts Mexicos sugar consumption for 2001/02 at 4.500 MTRV, a level equal to that estimated for 2000/01. Also, the USDA forecasts Mexican sugar exports at 530,000 MTRV. Included in this amount is that allocated to Mexico by the United States under the U.S. raw and refined sugar TRQ (148,000 MTRV). This forecast, along with the one for consumption, is tenuous given the announcement in January 2002 of a sales tax on beverages that use high fructose corn syrup (HFCS). There is a likely substitution of sugar for HFCS in the Mexican beverage industry due to the tax. Any increase in domestic consumption would likely offset either anticipated exports or ending stock levels.
The Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook newsletter will continue to provide current intelligence and forecasts of changing conditions in the U.S. sugar and sweeteners sectors. Special articles of topical interest will also continue to be provided. The full outlook report calendar for 2002 with the day of release for each report will soon appear on the ERS website at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/calendar.
|
If you have come to this page from an outside location click here to get back to mindfully.org |