[Tables not included - see note below]
Economic Research Service LDP-AQS-13
U.S. Department of Agriculture March 14, 2001
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
The outlook for favorable conditions for domestic aquacultural production and exports and imports of aquaculture products is based on a number of factors. First is that the growth in the U.S. economy will slow in 2001, but will continue. Second, demand strength is expected in from continued, albeit slower, expansions of the U.S. and Asian economies and food safety scares in the European Union (EU). Third, some aquaculture producers are expected to benefit from continued low grain prices.
The expectation of a relatively strong domestic economy and continued growth in Asian economies are necessary to help aquaculture production and trade opportunities expand in 2001. Growing personal income helps boost sales in restaurants and raises consumption of relatively high-priced protein products. Higher away-from-home food sales have been beneficial to aquaculture demand, as a high percentage of aquaculture products are sold in this sector. Moreover, the restaurant and foodservice sectors are also major sales vectors for imported aquaculture products such as shrimp, salmon, and tilapia. Exports of U.S. aquaculture products would be aided by growth in Asian economies. Aside from Canada, Asian countries are the largest markets for U.S. aquaculture products. However, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong against the Canadian dollar, restricting growth in exports to this market.
Lower beef production in the EU and consumer concerns over its safety are expected to boost demand for alternative protein products. While the U.S. aquaculture industry has not traditionally exported a large amount of products to the EU, the current situation may provide an opportunity to gain an entry to those markets. An increase in demand for seafood in the EU might also lower the exports of such things as farmed salmon. Grain prices in the United States are expected to remain relatively close to those from the previous year. This will be especially helpful to the catfish industry in maintaining low feed costs. While most indications are for expanding sales during 2001, aquaculture producers will again be faced with strong competition from the livestock and poultry industries. While beef supplies are expected to fall in 2001, forecasts call for expansion in pork and poultry production.
With the exception of the catfish industry, the United States is not one of the world' s larger aquacultural producers. However, this does not mean that there is not a large market for aquaculture products in the United States. Over the last several years the markets for imported tilapia and Atlantic salmon have expanded very rapidly, and imports of shrimp have continued to grow, although at a slower pace. While not all the shrimp imported is farm-raised, almost 100 percent of the tilapia and Atlantic salmon are. If even only 50 percent of the shrimp imported is farm-raised, the total value of imported farm-raised shrimp, tilapia, and Atlantic salmon in 2000 was $2.7 billion. To put that in perspective, the total estimated value of all U.S. poultry exports (broiler, turkeys, and eggs) in 2000 was $2.1 billion, 22 percent lower. So, there is a large domestic market for aquaculture products, but domestic growers will have to come up with innovative methods to compete effectively with foreign producers.
Sales of catfish by growers to processors are expected to increase in 2001 and reach between 605 million and 617 million pounds, 2 to 4 percent higher than in 2000. Sales in 2000 had been relatively strong through the first half of the year and then slowed markedly in the second half. As this happened, processor inventories increased to levels well above the previous year. This increase in inventories put downward pressure on both prices paid to farmers and wholesale prices received by processors.
However, by the end of January 2001, the large inventories held by processors had been reduced and ending stocks for January 2001 were below those of the previous year.
Based on grower inventories reported for the beginning of January, grower sales are expected to show modest increases during first-half 2001 compared with the previous year. However, the large inventory of foodsize fish held by growers is expected to place downward pressure on prices. Grower sales to processors in the second half of 2001 will be affected by both the general performance of the economy and what growth is realized in red meat and poultry supplies. Higher meat and poultry supplies especially affect catfish sales in grocery stores. Farm prices for catfish are expected to be in the mid 70 cents a pound range during the first 4 months of 2001, somewhat lower than in 2000. In the second half of 2001 prices may strengthen somewhat, as stockers and fingerlings inventories at the beginning of 2001 were slightly lower than a year earlier.
Over the last several years, low prices for both corn and soybeans have benefited most catfish farmers by reducing average feed prices. Lower feed costs have been especially beneficial, as the average farm prices for catfish between 1990 and 2000 have been between 70.9 and 78.6 cents per pound, with the exception of 1991 and 1992 when prices fell into the low 60 and upper 50 cents a pound range. The combination of lower feed costs and relatively low interest costs over the last several years has given catfish producers the incentive to expand pond acreage. The latest forecasts indicate that soybean meal and corn prices are expected to be only slightly higher than in 2000. While overall feed prices may not change much from their 2000 levels, they are expected to remain low on a historical basis.
Catfish growers indicated that at the start of 2001 their stocks of broodfish and all classes of foodsize fish were higher than the previous year. The January 1 survey is the only one that reports data from States other than the four largest producing States, although these four States account for the vast majority of catfish production. This is the third year in a row that inventory levels of foodsize fish have increased, with the level of grower held inventories in 2001 up considerably from 2000.
At the beginning of 2001, the total number of foodsize fish held by growers was estimated at 334 million, up 18 percent from the previous year. There were large inventory increases in each of the three categories of foodsize fish. The inventory of large foodsize fish was up 18 percent above the beginning of 2000. The strong increases in inventory numbers in Alabama and Mississippi were moderated by lower inventory holds in Arkansas and Louisiana. The number of medium foodsize fish held by growers totaled 88 million, up 14 percent from the previous year. In this case, a 36-percent increase in inventory holdings in Mississippi was partially offset by lower grower stock in Arkansas and Louisiana. Stocks of small foodsize fish form the bulk of grower inventories. These fish average right around 1 pound and form the core of the fish that will be processed during the first quarter of 2001. At the beginning of 2001 growers estimated that they held 240 million foodsize fish on their farms. This is about 40 million or 20 percent more small foodsize fish than had been in inventory at the beginning of 2000.
The inventory of foodsize fish held by growers at the beginning of each year forms the basic supply of catfish available to be sent to processing plants during the first quarter of the year. Colder water temperatures at the beginning of the year greatly reduce the growth and weight gain of the fish. Thus, the catfish that have reached market size by the beginning of the year represent the bulk of marketable supplies. With the strong increases in the inventories of foodsize fish and a somewhat slower economy than the previous year, there is likely to be some downward pressure on catfish prices. This is expected to occur even though from the beginning of the year through Easter normally is the period of strongest demand.
The January 1, 2001, inventory report indicated a 1-percent increase from the previous year in the number of stockers held by growers. The number of fingerlings in inventory at the start of 2001 was 1.023 billion, a decrease of 3 percent from the previous year. The number of stockers and fingerlings held in inventory at the beginning of the year represent the bulk of the fish available for processing from about the middle of the second quarter through the end of the year. The slightly higher inventory of stockers and the decrease in fingerlings held by growers indicates that, barring any adverse weather conditions, off-flavor, or disease.problems, there is expected to be a somewhat smaller supply of fish available for processing in the second through the fourth quarters of 2001. Again, depending on the strength of the economy and supplies of meat and poultry, the smaller supply of catfish is expected to put some upward pressure on prices, especially in the second half of the year.
In 2000, the average farm price for catfish was 75.1 cents a pound, up 2 percent from the previous year. Prices in the beginning of 2000 were relatively strong, the average for the first half of the year was 78 cents per pound. However, prices declined in the second half of 2000, pressured by large grower supplies, large processors' inventories, and seasonal declines in processor sales. Farm prices at the start of 2001 have been somewhat lower than the previous year. Prices in January were 69 cents per pound, down 5 cents from January 2000. Barring any extended harvesting or feeding disruptions, farm prices are expected to average in the low 70 cents per pound range over the first half of 2001. The larger supplies of foodsize fish are expected to place downward pressure on prices, however they are expected to be moderated by lower beef production and relatively slow growth in pork and poultry output. The expected scenario for the second half of 2001 is considerably different. In the second half of 2001, available supplies of catfish are expected to tighten and begin to place some upward pressure on both farm and wholesale prices. Prices at the wholesale level will be influenced by changes in the domestic economy and how it affects sales in the foodservice sector, the primary purchaser of processed catfish products.
In 2001, processors are expected to face stable prices for most inputs, with the exception of energy costs. If the economy remains relatively strong, the stable input costs combined with lower farm prices for catfish are expected to help processors maintain their margins even if wholesale prices show little growth.
During 2000, farm sales to processors totaled 594 million pounds, with an average price of 75.1 cents per pound. This implies gross sales of $446 million for catfish growers, up just over 1 percent from a year earlier. Including sales of broodfish, stockers, and fingerlings to other producers and other outlets, catfish growers reported total sales of $501 million in 2000, up 2.4 percent from 1999. For 2001, with the expected increase in sales and overall flat farm prices, grower sales of catfish to processing plants are expected to generate between $455 million and $465 million.
Strong sales and favorable prices through the first half of 2000 led catfish growers to continue to expand their pond acreage. The drop in farm prices in the second half of 2000 is expected to greatly reduce the incentive to increase acreage in the second half of 2001. The January survey of growers reported that pond acreage was 2 percent higher at 190,320 acres. In addition, the growers indicated they expected to add 5,065 acres of new ponds, which would be available for production by the beginning of the second half of 2000. Most of the increase in pond acreage from 1999 to 2000 was the result of expansions in Alabama and Mississippi. These two States reported that they would have a combined 5,000 additional acres in production in first-half 2001 compared with the previous year. The breakout for the acreage estimated to be in production in the first half of 2001 is 156,855 acres for foodsize fish, 24,580 acres for fingerlings, and 5,615 for broodfish.
During 2000, catfish processors sold 297.2 million pounds of product, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier. For 2000, the weighted average price for processed catfish products was $2.38 per pound, 1.5 percent above 1999. This is the third consecutive year that the average processor price has risen after falling in both 1996 and 1997. Much of the increase in the average price is due to stronger sales in the fresh market where the average price rose by 6 cents. The weighted average prices for frozen products rose only 1 cent. With an increase in sales volume and a higher average price, gross processor revenues from catfish sales reached $707 million in 2000, 3 percent higher than in 1999. With the expectation of slightly higher sales levels and relatively stable prices, processor revenues are forecast to reach between $720 million and $735 million in 2001. During 2000, processor sales were strong through the first 5 months of the year. After that, sales began to slow and dropped below their year-earlier levels in most categories. Overall sales of fresh and frozen.catfish were higher than in 1999, but sales fell in a number of categories. Most of the increase in sales came from higher sales of "other" products. Sales of fresh other products rose by 2 percent and sales of frozen other products were up 11 percent. Together, sales of other products were up about 5 million pounds, which helped to partially offset the loss of sales in some of the other categories. The higher growth in other sales put downward pressure on the weighted average price for all products, as prices for other products are considerably lower than prices for filleted products and sometimes lower than prices for whole catfish.
The most recent survey of the domestic trout industry by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) showed total sales of trout at $76 million, down slightly from 1999. The survey also included 271 operations that distributed trout in 2000. The trout are distributed for restoration or conservation purposes. Many of these operations are State or Federal hatcheries. The value of the fish distributed for these purposes was estimated at $60.9 million in 2000 and is separate from the figure for the value of trout sold.
Most of the decrease in sales came from lower sales of foodsize fish. In terms of the trout report, foodsize fish are those 12 inches or more in length. Sale of foodsize fish were $59.2 million, down 2 percent from the previous year. Most of this was lower sales in Idaho, the largest trout producer. Partially offsetting the decline in Idaho were higher foodsize fish sales in California, Pennsylvania, and Washington.
Sales of stockers (fish 6 to 12 inches) total 7.6 million pounds with a value of $6.7 million, both figures are increases from the previous year. Stockers are either sold to trout farmers for further growout or sold to private groups for stocking of specific lakes or rivers. In 2000, both the sales volume and the value of fingerling sales (fish under 6 inches) were about the same as the previous year. Trout eggs sales in 2000 were valued at $4.0 million, down 19 percent from 1999.
Tilapia were not tracked individually until 1992, in 1993, the first full year of import data, only 18 million pounds of tilapia were imported. By 2000, imports had grown by 394 percent. In 2000 imports of tilapia and tilapia fillets reached 89.2 million pounds, 8 percent higher than the previous year. The value of tilapia imports increased even faster, growing 24 percent in 2000, to $101.4 million. Imports of tilapia were higher in all the categories, with imports of whole fish up 2 percent, fresh fillets up 41 percent, and imports of frozen fillets up 44 percent. Frozen whole tilapia continues to dominate imports and accounted for 69 percent of imports on a quantity basis, but imports of filleted products have been growing at a rapid rate and on a value basis accounted for 67 percent of all tilapia imports. The actual poundage of tilapia products imported understates the size of the industry supported by the U.S. market. To supply the U.S. market in 2000 required the production of 152 million pounds of live fish.
Taiwan's tilapia industry has traditionally been the major supplier of products to the U. S. market. Up until the last 2 years, the Taiwanese industry dominated shipments of frozen whole fish to the United States. However, this segment of the import industry is rapidly changing. China began shipping frozen whole fish to the United States in 1997 and by 2000 this had grown to 25.6 million, 42 percent of the total. Shipments from China are expected to become even a larger percentage of total tilapia imports in 2001. China is by far the world' s largest aquacultural producer and is always looking for new export opportunities for its domestic industry.
Changes are also occurring in the fresh and frozen fillet markets. Up through 1999, Costa Rica had been the dominant supplier of fresh fillets, accounting for over half of U.S. imports. Honduras and Ecuador had been secondary suppliers. In 2000, imports from Ecuador increased by 80 percent to 7.2 million pounds. Ecuador, with its large farmed shrimp industry, is looking to diversify their aquacultural production, and if tilpaia prices continue to remain strong, it is expected to continue to increase production, possibly converting more shrimp ponds to tilapia production. Imports from Honduras were up 35 percent to 2.3 million pounds, or 14 percent of fresh tilapia fillet imports.
In the frozen fillet segment of the tilapia import market, imports from China have been expanding the fastest. Shipments from China have gone from zero in 1997 to 4.0 million pounds in 2000. Imports from.China are expected to continue to grow in 2001 as it vies for a larger proportion of this segment of U.S. fish imports. While the market for frozen whole fish continues to increase, producers in China are looking to capture a larger segment of the potentially larger market for filleted products. Moving to the filleted product market also allows them to sell a value-added product with a much higher unit value.
Tilapia imports for 2001 are expected to reach 93 million to 95 million pounds on a product-weight basis and 155 million to165 million pounds on a live-weight basis. The value of imports is expected to reach between $106 and $108 million in 2001. Average import values are expected to increase slightly as imports of fillets continue to grow, but prices in the different categories are not expected to show much increase, and they should be pressured by rising imports from China.
U.S. imports of Atlantic salmon in 2000 totaled 289 million pounds and $741 million. These are increases of 19 percent in quantity and 18 percent in value. All three Atlantic salmon import categories (fresh whole fish, frozen whole fish, and fresh and frozen fillets) showed increased quantities, but the average unit values for both fresh and filleted products fell in 2000 after rising in 1999. Unit values for frozen products rose, as the total value of frozen Atlantic salmon imports increased 22 percent. Imports of filleted products continue to be the fastest growing segment of Atlantic salmon imports. In 2000, imports of filleted products grew 35 percent to 159 million pounds. Imports of Atlantic salmon fillets have risen rapidly over the last several years, and between 1998 and 2000 have grown 38 percent. This rapid growth has changed imports of filleted products into the largest of the three product categories, surpassing imports of fresh products. The value of filleted products reached $443 million in 2001, topping those of fresh whole fish and accounting for 60 percent of all Atlantic salmon imports.
The biggest change in the Atlantic salmon market in 2000 was that almost all the growth in imports came from either Canada or Chile. Imports from Canada were up 8 percent to 106.7 million pounds and shipments from Chile rose by 51 percent to 139.3 million pounds. Chile is the dominant supplier of filleted products to the United States. In 2000 Chile supplied 80 percent of all Atlantic salmon fillets. This represents a market worth $332.9 million to Chilean producers.
While economic growth in the United States in 2000 is not forecast to be as strong as for the previous year, imports of Atlantic salmon are expected to continue to expand in 2001. Shipments are expected to approach 300 million pounds and $770 million in value. Demand is expected to remain relatively strong, especially from the restaurant industry, where Atlantic salmon has become a featured product for many businesses. Also a strong dollar versus the currencies of major suppliers, especially Canada is expected to hold down any increases in per-unit values.
U.S. shrimp imports continued to grow in 2000, with the quantity of imported shrimp up 4 percent to 761 million pounds and the value of shrimp imports reaching $3.8 billion, an increase of 20 percent. The average import value of a pound of shrimp rose 15 percent to $4.94, 65 cents higher than the previous year.
Shrimp imports are aggregated into three main categories, frozen, fresh, and prepared products. While the value of imported shrimp rose in all three categories, most of the growth has come from higher imports of prepared shrimp products. This growth in the prepared shrimp category mirrors changes that have also been occurring in the salmon and tilapia markets. Producers in other countries are trying to increase revenues by moving away from producing a generic commodity to more specialized value-added products. In 2000, the quantity of prepared shrimp imports increased by 23 percent and the value rose by 35 percent. Between 1998 and 2000 the shrimp imports have expanded by 65.3 million pounds, higher imports of prepared shrimp products have accounted for 72 percent of the increase. Imports of frozen whole shrimp still constitute the bulk of the import market at about 80 percent, but imports of various prepared products are expected to continue to provide a large percentage of the growth in imports and gradually become a major proportion of shrimp imports.
While the type of shrimp products being imported was changing, the source of these products has also changed. Until recently Ecuador had been the second largest U.S. shrimp supplier behind Thailand. In 1998, imports from Ecuador accounted for 20 percent of all shrimp imports on a quantity basis. In 2000 imports from Ecuador totaled 42 million pounds, only 6 percent of U.S. shrimp imports. The decreases in imports from Ecuador are the combined result of disease problems, the weather effects of El Nino, and diversification into other products like tilapia. Imports from Mexico have also declined, but to a lesser extent. Although the quantity of shrimp imported from Mexico has dropped, the value has risen as prices for large shrimp, Mexico' s major export, has continued to be strong.
Over the last 2 years, while imports from Ecuador and Mexico have declined, the totals have risen as imports from Thailand, China, and a number of Central American countries such as Panama, Costa Rica, and Honduras have taken their place. Thailand continues to increase its total market share. In 1997, Thailand' s share of total U.S. shrimp imports was 25 percent, by 2000 it had increased to 37 percent. The total value of shrimp imported from Thailand has also increased rapidly and in 2000 accounted for 40 percent of the value of imported shrimp. Imports from Thailand dominate the prepared shrimp market and accounted for 80 percent of the value of imports in that category. Rebounding from disease problems in the early 1990's, China' s shrimp industry seems to be strongly expanding. Shipments in 2000 reached 40 million pounds, up over 100 percent from the previous year and around the same quantity level as Ecuador and Indonesia, although the value is not as high. Imports from China are expected to be a major factor in coming years as China is by far the world' s largest aquacultural producer.
Imports of shrimp in 2001 are expected to increase only modestly on a quantity basis and on a value basis are expected to be flat or decline somewhat as unit values decline. Slower expected growth in the United States economy is expected to lower the demand for shrimp, especially at the higher priced end of the market. However, the shrimp market is also impacted by changes in market demand in Japan and Europe.
The Japanese economy is not expected to give any boost to shrimp demand, but the uncertainties surrounding red meat supplies in Europe may boost shrimp consumption as consumers look for alternative products.
In 2000, the value of oyster exports was up 10 percent from the previous year and the volume rose by 18 percent. After rising in 1999, both mussel and clam exports fell in 2000. It had been expected that economic growth in Asian countries would result in a stronger export market for U.S. mussels and clams, as the majority go to either Japan, Korea, or Hong Kong/China. Part of the reason that the value of clam exports has fallen in each of the last 4 years is that shipments to Canada have fallen. Shipments to Canada are down due to the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar, which has increased the price of U.S. products. Mussel exports declined in 2000, but the export levels (quantity and value) were still higher than in either 1997 or 1998. Domestic mussel producers have been facing a growing domestic demand for their products as witnessed by the continued growth in mussel imports.
A strong domestic economy and a strong dollar relative to most currencies boosted imports of oysters, mussels, and clams. This is the second year in a row that the value and quantity of imports have risen for each of the three types of mollusks. If the domestic economy remains strong in 2001 and foodservice expenditures expand, then mollusk imports are expected to again increase.
In 2000, mussel imports continued to be the largest segment of mollusk imports on a quantity basis. In addition, with its continued growth in import value, mussels passed oysters and became the most valuable of mollusk imports. Mussel imports were 43.1 million pounds in 2000, up 23 percent from the previous year, after increasing only slightly in 1999. The value of mussel imports rose 41 percent to $47.4 million, almost doubled that of 1997. The majority of mussels are farm-raised, in either Canada or New Zealand. With the U.S. dollar remaining strong against the Canadian dollar mussel imports are expected to expand again in 2001..After increasing 15 percent in 1999, clam imports rose by 7 percent to 20.8 million pounds in 2000. The quantity of clam imports has risen in each of the last 4 years. Canada is also the largest supplier of clams to the U.S. market, and like mussels, imports of clams are expected to increase in 2001.
After recording a small increase in 1999, U.S. exports of ornamental fish decreased by 24 percent in 2000. Since 1997, U.S. ornamental fish exports have fallen by 44 percent. About the only major market that has managed to stay at about the same level is Canada. With the decline in exports to most markets, shipments to Canada accounted for 51 percent of all exports. Shipments to Canada in 2000 were down 3 percent from the previous year to $4.2 million. It is surprising that shipments to Canada have remained as stable, with the price of U.S. ornamental fish being made higher by the relative weakness of the Canadian dollar.
Exports to most major countries had been down over the last several years due to a combination of economic uncertainties in a number of the major Asian export markets such as Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong. The strong U.S. dollar has also made U.S. exports less competitive in a number of markets. Even with an improvement in the economic situations for many Asian countries, exports of ornamental fish fell strongly in 2000. Shipments to Japan, previously our second largest market, have rapidly spiraled downward. Shipments have gone from $3.9 million in 1997 to $715,000 in 2000, a drop of 82 percent.
The value of ornamental fish imports rose 6 percent in 2000 to $40.8 million. The increase was primarily from Asian countries. The top five exporters are Asian countries, and combined, they accounted for 70 percent of total exports to the United States. Greater shipments from these countries (Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, and Hong Kong) offset smaller shipments from most countries in the Western Hemisphere. Thailand was the largest exporter to the United States in 2000, with shipments valued at $9.2 million. This is a 19-percent increase from the previous year, but still less than they exported in 1997.
Principal contributor:
Dave Harvey 202-694-5177
e-mail - djharvey@ers.usda.gov
For
accompanying tables download 46kb pdf file from USDA website
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/so/view.asp?f=livestock/ldp-aqs/
Note from USDA:
AQUACULTURE OUTLOOK (PDF Format)
LDP-AQS-13, March 14, 2001
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.
Please note that printed copies of this issue of AQUACULTURE OUTLOOK are not
available from the Economic Research Service. However, a print subscription
is available from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS). To
order, please call 703-605-6220 and ask for SUB-LDPAQS-4040, $24/year, or ask
for a single copy citing the publication number and month shown above. NTIS
accepts MasterCard and Visa.
Please note that this publication is in .PDF format and is 45.2KB in size.
Acrobat Reader 3.0 or later is required to view and print this document. The
Adobe Acrobat .PDF format is used to preserve all the layout and content used
in the original publication. To download and get help using the Adobe Acrobat
Reader, please go to: http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html
For More Information on ERS Publications and Data
*****************************************************************************
Visit the ERS web site at:
http://www.ers.usda.gov
Other reports are available from the Products and Services area on the ERS
web
site at:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/periodic.htm
For sales information on ERS publications, go to:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/prodsrvs/sales.htm
|
If you have come to this page from an outside location click here to get back to mindfully.org |